Big River Report
BIG RIVER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

Phone: 601.259.3731

Email: wtr3@bigriverfunds.com


RiverView Q1 2019

The Q1 2019 estimated return for DIA was +11.12% and SPY +13.03%.
At the March FOMC meeting the Fed made substantial policy changes.
The Fed suggested that we have reached, or are very close to reaching, the upper bounds for the Fed Funds rate.
The Fed outlined a plan to end the balance sheet reduction program on September 30.
The US 10 year treasury yield is approximately 2.41%.
The Fed Funds rate is between 2.25% - 2.50%.
The prime interest rate remains 5.50%.  
The Fed reduced US economic growth forecasts versus the December estimates.
The projections for 2019 US GDP moved down from 2.3% to 2.1% with 2020 and 2021 now expected to run below 2%.
The forecast for 2019 PCE inflation moved down from 1.9% to 1.8%. 
The forecast for 2019 unemployment moved up from 3.5% to 3.7%. 
The Fed Funds target rate for 2019 is projected to remain at the current level of approximately 2.4%, down from a projected 3.1%. The projected Fed Funds rate through 2021 was lowered to 2.6% from 3.1%. 
There are many issues for investors to consider: among the issues are the US yield curve, global and US growth rates, roughly $10 Trillion in global debt outstanding with negative yield, unresolved issues with the European Union, important ongoing trade negotiations with China and US political dynamics.
I have researched and given thought to the facts and issues noted above along with the implications for our investments. Additionally, I have given a fair amount of thought to MMT and NIRP and the potential implications of these policies (Modern Monetary Theory; Negative Interest Rate Policy). 
I am glad to share my research and thoughts with you via email, phone or in person.
I spend a lot of time preparing for an extended downturn in US stocks, which at some point will be inevitable. The 1960’s were considered the go-go years for US stocks, yet at the end of 1974 the DJIA had returned nothing over the previous 13 years, including dividends. 
The US has experienced a number of these long periods where the stock market did not make any gains.
 
Give me a call to learn more about Big River's process. (601)259-3731
Thank you,
Bill
Also, Big River can implement a market index program for your 401k and the savings will likely be substantial. Please have the person if your office who handles the 401k give me a call.


BIG RIVER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
MONEY MANAGEMENT
CEO: Bill Robertson
Web: bigriverfunds.com
Email: wtr3@bigriverfunds.com
Fax: 601.487.6365
Phone: 601.259.3731